Is it the end of blogs?
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I stumbled across a rather interesting article published in ‘Echos’, the famous French financial paper, on December 18th. A report by Gartner seems to suggest that blogging may be a thing of the past, sooner rather than later! The original article (in French) can be found here.
Here are few figures to illustrate Gartner’s point:
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There are currently 260M blogs on the www, out of which 55M are active
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Only 2% of bloggers frequently blog and contribute to other blogs
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Facebook and myspace respectively lost 12% and 4% of users between August-September 2006
Gartner argues that blogging as a phenomenon has entered the public consciousness in a big way. However, there are limits to the growth of even a Web 2.0 phenomenon like blogging, as the initial excitement about it has begun to be replaced with a more rational view of how blogging technologies should be used. This leads us to ponder whether there is a peak point in blogging growth, after which the phenomenon will become the norm.
Gartner’s Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2007 and Beyond (Dec 1, 2006)
I don’t think this is the end of blogs quite yet, however as a myspace member I can understand why people lose interest in so called on-line communities sites. There’re fun at the beginning but tend to become rather repetitive after a while.
Question time!
How do you, as a blogger, foresee the future of blogs? 
| Print article | This entry was posted by Lolly on 26/12/2006 at 9:28 am, and is filed under Blogging, France. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site. |
about 5 years ago
I wouldn’t be surprised if the total number of blogs peaked and somewhat declined this year. IMO that’s not a big deal, as most of the blogs that will go away will be from people that decided to start blogging to ‘see what the deal is’, and quickly dropped the blog after seeing that it was going to take a time commitment to grow it. The ‘active’ number is the one that matters, IMO, as long as that grows or holds steady, blogs will be fine.
about 5 years ago
I do not think that the number of blogs really matters. After all even if there remain just 1 000 000 blogs that still will be quite a lot – and I personally do not care for such trends – as for myself I will blog as long as I enjoy it.
about 5 years ago
As long as blogging continues to be a way that I can process my thoughts, and learn from others, I’ll keep on blogging. I think the only thing that would deter me is being openly bombarded with advertisements, spam, etc. (I gave up blogger because of this). There’s something about the corporate touch that just wilts anything fresh.
about 5 years ago
I agree that eventually blogs will fade away like many other things in the past. Some people will continue to be successfull while most would have given up.
There are so many low quality blogs with simply no real value that I think eventually blogs will loose their appeal.
about 5 years ago
The picture in this blogpost @hardbloggingscientists makes you think about what is next, I guess: http://www.hardbloggingscientists.de/diskurs/hbs-beim-webmontag-in-kaiserslautern-the-web20-is-dead/ (that post is in German, but the picture isn’t
)
about 5 years ago
Blogging for me has taken the place of journaling – and my hands don’t cramp from trying to keep up with my head using a pen and paper (background: production typist back in the 70s….fingers fly…no thought…zen typing). And if you want it to work, like any relationship, it *is* work – but, like being an artist, it’s work that feels like fun. I’ve been pretty steady at it since I started in March (?) on myspace to see if I liked it, then jumped in with both feet. I *love* blogging – even if it’s only talking to myself (and these days, more and more, it isn’t). Artists tend to be off in their own work anyhow – this is the way I reach out and touch the world. I’m sure I’m not alone in that.
about 5 years ago
Laurence – thanks for dropping by. Was excited to see another qualie…finally!
Blogging as a medium is so versatile, it seems to have taken a life of its own…and has gone far beyond the imagination of people who conceived this tool. I suppose it would be long before we’d see the decline in numbers. While the activity with the early adopters could fizzle out, the medium still hasn’t reached the critical mass. In developing countries it is still largely a metro phenomenon. Also, organizations, corporations & mainstream media are taking to it. It would be interesting to watch how this pans out.
about 5 years ago
Hi all,
Thanks for the feedback – it’s interesting to see that we all pretty much agree. For some reason, I cannot help thinking of the song ‘another one bits the dust’ when thinking of the future of blogs…..
Reshma, good point; it would be good to see more corporate blogs and to use blogs in research too. What are they waiting for?
Tammy, I simply love the way you use blogs! Loving your art too!
about 5 years ago
I dont think its a numbers game either. I think myspace did a bang up job with its marketing and got a whole whack of curiousity seekers and tire kickers to sign up, thereby artificially inflating the the metric. But I do think the metric is flawed. For instance I personally signed up for myspace and forgot myuser name after a few weeks and so signed again. Do I use either of them NO. I do however think that technorati and alexa need to do some re-think on their metrics. To properly reflect the ACTUAL # number of active bloggers. I blog because I like it and “think” I have more to offer than ranting about my girlfriend or some other teeny angst. (opinionated I know). I wonder if the metrics with go so far as to be more niche related or reflect niches as a whole.
Cheers and beers from canada
Shane
about 5 years ago
Blogging is the Internet equivilent of social networking. Instead of asking another person at a party, “Do you know someone I can talk to”, the online equivilent is linking and posting to another blog site.
As such, I think there is a bright future ahead for blogging, whether that is to find a different spin on the news, to get an answer to a curious question, or to just meet other people online that have a similar bent as you.
Jonathan
about 5 years ago
I am committed to being the last blogger standing…
about 5 years ago
Salut!! =) Thanks for posting this article, it’s a very interesting read indeed!! But I couldn’t quite catch everything that was written in French.
“…the initial excitement about it has begun to be replaced with a more rational view of how blogging technologies should be used.” — How did the author define this “rational view”?
“…after which the phenomenon will become the norm.” — Help, I didn’t quite get this… hehe.. if the blogging phenomenon reaches a peak and then starts to slow down, how can it become the “norm” at the same time?
How do you find all the articles you read?? Merci encore! Bonne annee! =D
about 5 years ago
Shane – I totally agree. Myspace arevery clever, and as a myspace user, I particularly enjoy the site’s versatility i.e. being able to easily customise my page. Saying that, yes there are lots of inactive pages, lots of inactive blogs which do inflate the metric. I think that with the evolution of the www, the information we look at will have to be re-organised at some stage… More will follow shortly on this
James –
Asphaire – you raised some interesting points which I unfortnately cannot answer as the article is rather subjective in itself.
I find these articles when clicking the news tab on Google or stuff we discuss at work
about 5 years ago
Hopefully, blogs and feed architecture will evolve into something a little more organic. As long as people have something to say and others are willing to read or listen, blogs will continue to exist in some form or another. As the fat middle of the me-blogging movement starts to die down in a few years, the quality and relevance of the content of those blogs that remain active will be their lifeblood.